De 4G a 5G, desde la perspectiva del Reino Unido.

El siguiente papel de trabajo, tomando como base el estudio del caso del Reino Unido, nos brinda interesantes conclusiones sobre el cambio tecnológico, en especial el actual desde el 4G al 5G.  Los autores, Edward Oughton, Zoraida Friaa, Tom Russell, Douglas Sicker4 David D. Cleevely, un grupo interdisciplinario y plurinacional, que señalan sus objetivos en la siguiente introducción:

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change.

Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example.

We find that over 90% of baseline data growth between 2016 and 2030 is driven by technological change, rather than demographics.

To meet this demand, spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and can meet baseline growth until approximately 2025, after which new spectrum bands will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.

Para concluir:

Rapid technological innovation in mobile telecommunications affects our ability to accurately forecast long-term capacity and demand, making it essential that rigorous examination of this uncertainty is both quantified and visualised to support decision-making. The analysis presented here can help MNOs, SME digital economy firms and government institutions understand the implications of increasing demand (particularly the economic implications) resulting from change in both per user traffic and demographics.

Additionally, quantified assessment of the performance of different 5G supply-side strategies were presented as ways for MNOs to cope with dynamic mobile traffic growth.

Salvando las diferencias economías, sociales y culturales entre el Reino Unido y Cuba, las conclusiones pueden ser similares. Para diseñar políticas coherentes relacionadas con el  despliegue de la infraestructura de las telecomunicaciones hay que tener en cuenta disímiles factores ya sean estos económicos o tecnológicos, incluso coyunturales como los impuestos por las geopolítica de Cuba, o  incluso los culturales.

Pero la incertidumbre debe tener ser acotada principalmente ponderando: los cambios tecnológicos y las facilidades que estos le permiten a la red, el uso que se le da al tráfico disponible en la red. A la demanda por estos  servicios y las facilidades de los usuarios para acceder. Y por supuesto, a factores exógenos como los demográficos y/o financieros.

Los autores señalan:

Consequently, technological forecasters should be encouraged to focus on refining per user data demand, rather than devoting time to developing population projections, contrasting strongly with energy or transport systems.

 

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